Tennis · WTA Athens · 14/07, 15:00
Prediction: Polina Kudermetova vs Maria Sakkari
Prediction summary
Winner
Polina Kudermetova
Maria Sakkari
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Polina Kudermetova
3-7 (W-L)
Maria Sakkari
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Polina Kudermetova 1524 · Maria Sakkari 1482
| Polina Kudermetova | Maria Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polina Kudermetova (rating 1524 vs 1482).
- Polina Kudermetova dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 42.6% break avg.
- Note: Polina Kudermetova makes many double faults (6.9/match).
Statistics
| Polina Kudermetova | Maria Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.6 | 10.2-12.3 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 6.9 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Polina Kudermetova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Liv Boulard WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Alina Charaeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Clervie Ngounoue Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/06 | Jessika Ponchet Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Alina Charaeva WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/06 | Priscilla Hon WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/05 | Xiyu Wang French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Viktoriya Tomova French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Maria Sakkari
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Clara Tauson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 09/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Claire Liu French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Linda Noskova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/05 | Peyton Stearns WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/05 | Elena Rybakina WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Polina Kudermetova vs Maria Sakkari?
Our model gives 61% to Maria Sakkari, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.