Tennis · W15 Rancho Santa Fe · 10/07, 19:00
Prediction: Alyssa Ahn vs Alina Shcherbinina
Prediction summary
Winner
Alyssa Ahn
Alina Shcherbinina
Estimated games
19.1
Recent form · 10 last
Alyssa Ahn
5-5 (W-L)
Alina Shcherbinina
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alyssa Ahn 1520 · Alina Shcherbinina 1587
| Alyssa Ahn | Alina Shcherbinina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alina Shcherbinina (rating 1520 vs 1587).
- Alina Shcherbinina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Alina Shcherbinina makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Alyssa Ahn | Alina Shcherbinina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.8-0.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.5 | 11.6-5.6 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 57% | 71% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alyssa Ahn
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Isabella Foshee W15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/07 | Jessica Bernales W15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Katherine Hui W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Alexis Nguyen W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Midori Castillo Meza W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Salma Ewing W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Anya Arora W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Anna Tabunshchyk W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/11 | Mary Stoiana ITF W50 Austin · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Elise Mertens US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Alina Shcherbinina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Vesa Gjinaj W15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Kingsley Wolf W15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/07 | Kate Fakih W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/07 | Salma Ewing W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/07 | Jo Yee Chan W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Kayla Chung W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Raina Miae Kim W15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/06 | Anastasia Grechkina UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Anya Murthy UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alyssa Ahn vs Alina Shcherbinina?
Our model gives 67% to Alina Shcherbinina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.