Tennis · WTA Newport · 10/07, 19:20
Prediction: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Tatjana Maria
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucrezia Stefanini
Tatjana Maria
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Lucrezia Stefanini
7-3 (W-L)
Tatjana Maria
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lucrezia Stefanini
1–2
Tatjana Maria
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucrezia Stefanini 1576 · Tatjana Maria 1563
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Tatjana Maria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Lucrezia Stefanini 1–2 Tatjana Maria (3).
Statistics
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Tatjana Maria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.4-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-7.4 | 10.2-7.8 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 58.8% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 54.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Lucrezia Stefanini 1 – 2 Tatjana Maria (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucrezia Stefanini 1–2 Tatjana Maria
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/25 WTA Puerto Vallarta | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/01/23 Australian Open Women | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 23/10/19 ITF W80 Poitiers | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucrezia Stefanini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Anna Rogers WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Carol Zhao WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/07 | Savannah Broadus W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/07 | Yexin Ma W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/07 | Kristina Liutova W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/07 | Haruka Kaji W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Yuki Naito W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/06 | Katarzyna Kawa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Luisina Giovannini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Yeon Woo Ku WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Tatjana Maria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Katherine Sebov WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Olivia Lincer WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Yulia Putintseva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Tereza Valentova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/06 | Jasmine Paolini WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Dayana Yastremska WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucrezia Stefanini vs Tatjana Maria?
Our model gives 62% to Tatjana Maria, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.