Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 10/07, 10:00
Prediction: Max Basing vs Felix Gill
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Max Basing; the market gives 49% to Max Basing (odds 1.91).
Recent form leaves Max Basing with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Felix Gill has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Max Basing 1517 · Felix Gill 1474
| Max Basing | Felix Gill | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Max Basing (rating 1517 vs 1474).
Statistics
| Max Basing | Felix Gill | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 56% (9) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-14.4 | 12.5-14.2 |
| Aces | 1 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 32.5% | 20.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Max Basing
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Filippo Romano Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 24/06 | Tom Gentzsch Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Francesco Maestrelli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 13/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 31/05 | Martin Damm Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/04 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-1 | 6-8 | L |
Felix Gill
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Filip Jeff Planinsek Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/07 | William Jansen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Max Basing vs Felix Gill?
Our model gives 52% to Max Basing, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.