Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 10/07, 12:00
Prediction: Yi Zhou vs Alastair Gray
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Yi Zhou; the market gives 46% to Yi Zhou (odds 2.00).
Over their last 10 matches, Yi Zhou sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Alastair Gray arrives on a 6-4 run.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yi Zhou 1579 · Alastair Gray 1533
| Yi Zhou | Alastair Gray | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yi Zhou (rating 1579 vs 1533).
- Alastair Gray dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 47.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Yi Zhou | Alastair Gray | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-9.9 | 12.7-10.1 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 52.3% | 47.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Daniel De Jonge Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Robin Catry Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-20 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefano Travaglia Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/06 | Guy Den Ouden Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Benjamin Willwerth Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 15/06 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | James McGloughlin Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Alastair Gray
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Patrick Brady Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/07 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | James Watt Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/06 | Henry Jefferson Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Edward Winter Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/05 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 21/05 | Mukund Sasikumar Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yi Zhou vs Alastair Gray?
Our model gives 51% to Yi Zhou, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.