Tennis · M15 Wuning · 10/07, 11:00
Prediction: James Van Herzeele vs Noritaka Koizumi
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to James Van Herzeele; the market gives 59% to Noritaka Koizumi (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, James Van Herzeele sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Noritaka Koizumi arrives on a 2-8 run.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · James Van Herzeele 1491 · Noritaka Koizumi 1491
| James Van Herzeele | Noritaka Koizumi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| James Van Herzeele | Noritaka Koizumi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.8 | 9.7-10.5 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 52.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
James Van Herzeele
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Masaki Ishikawa M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/07 | Thanaphat Boosarawongse M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-1 | 7-10 | L |
| 10/06 | Thanapet Chanta M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
| 09/06 | Ye Chen M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 04/06 | Tsung-Hao Huang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-10 | L |
| 03/06 | Xing Dao Chen M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/05 | Arjun Mehrotra M15 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 06/05 | Ye Cong Mo M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 27/04 | Makoto Ochi M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
Noritaka Koizumi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 07/07 | Yuta Kawahashi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Chase Ferguson M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Masamichi Imamura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Saki Tange M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-8 | L |
| 08/06 | Yua Taka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-11 | L |
| 28/05 | Hiromasa Koyama M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Yuta Kawahashi M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 24/05 | Qian Sun M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/05 | Jake Delaney M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in James Van Herzeele vs Noritaka Koizumi?
Our model gives 55% to Noritaka Koizumi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.