Tennis · M15 Wuning · 15/07, 04:00
Prediction: Shu Muto vs Qian Sun
Prediction summary
Winner
Shu Muto
Qian Sun
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shu Muto
5-5 (W-L)
Qian Sun
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shu Muto 1443 · Qian Sun 1497
| Shu Muto | Qian Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Qian Sun (rating 1443 vs 1497).
- Note: Qian Sun makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Shu Muto | Qian Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-10.7 | 11.7-12 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shu Muto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Kazuki Nishiwaki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Sam Ryan Ziegann M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Yuquan Jin M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Zhenxiong Dong M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Eric Jr. Olivarez M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-9 | L |
| 15/04 | Zhan Zheng M25 Anning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko M25 Anning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/03 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Kashiwa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-8 | L |
Qian Sun
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06 | Yaojie Zeng M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Xiaoyin Yang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 27/05 | Lachlan Mcfadzean M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 24/05 | Noritaka Koizumi M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/05 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/05 | Jie Cui M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 21/05 | Ye Cong Mo M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 20/05 | Xing Dao Chen M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/05 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 22/04 | Akira Santillan M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shu Muto vs Qian Sun?
Our model gives 66% to Qian Sun, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.