Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 10/07, 09:00
Prediction: Lucia Natal vs Elza Tomase
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Elza Tomase; the market gives 87% to Elza Tomase (odds 1.08).
On recent form, Lucia Natal is 1-9 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Elza Tomase 7-3 over theirs.
77%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucia Natal 1456 · Elza Tomase 1559
| Lucia Natal | Elza Tomase | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elza Tomase (rating 1456 vs 1559).
- Elza Tomase is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Lucia Natal makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Lucia Natal | Elza Tomase | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.6 | 1.4-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.3-11.5 | 9.7-6.7 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 52.9% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 36.8% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucia Natal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Cayetana Gay W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Georgina Hays W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Polona Hercog W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Isis Louise Van den Broek W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/03 | Despina Papamichail W50 Chihuahua |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/03 | Jenna Dean W50 Chihuahua |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/02 | Maria Sara Popa W15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Yujia Huang W15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-11 | L |
| 06/12 | Franziska Sziedat ITF W15 Melilla · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Elza Tomase
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Noemi La Cagnina W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/07 | Anja Stankovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Anna Petkovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Dunja Maric W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Dana Charintceva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Aleksandra Pozarenko W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Mina Hodzic W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Ipek Oz W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Amelie Justine Hejtmanek W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/05 | Nika Cakarun W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucia Natal vs Elza Tomase?
Our model gives 77% to Elza Tomase, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.