Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 17/07, 08:30
Prediction: Lucia Natal vs Nina Radovanovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucia Natal
Nina Radovanovic
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Lucia Natal
2-8 (W-L)
Nina Radovanovic
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucia Natal 1500 · Nina Radovanovic 1584
| Lucia Natal | Nina Radovanovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nina Radovanovic (rating 1500 vs 1584).
- Nina Radovanovic is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Lucia Natal makes many double faults (5/match).
- Note: Nina Radovanovic makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Lucia Natal | Nina Radovanovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.6-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-10.7 | 11.2-5.9 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 5 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 57.5% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 56.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucia Natal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Charlotte Pikkaart W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 14/07 | Ariana Geerlings W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Elza Tomase W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Cayetana Gay W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Georgina Hays W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Polona Hercog W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Isis Louise Van den Broek W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/03 | Despina Papamichail W50 Chihuahua |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/03 | Jenna Dean W50 Chihuahua |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Nina Radovanovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Milica Stosovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Lana Virc W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/07 | Anja Stankovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Julia Stamatova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Dimitra Pavlou W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Tea Nikcevic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/06 | Ksenia Zaytseva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/06 | Anja Stankovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/06 | Mia Horvit W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/06 | Andrea Obradovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucia Natal vs Nina Radovanovic?
Our model gives 73% to Nina Radovanovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.