Tennis · M15 Rancho Santa Fe · 09/07, 19:30
Prediction: Jacob Brumm vs Noah Johnston
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Noah Johnston; the market gives 59% to Noah Johnston (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Jacob Brumm sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Noah Johnston arrives on a 5-5 run.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Brumm 1458 · Noah Johnston 1534
| Jacob Brumm | Noah Johnston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Noah Johnston (rating 1458 vs 1534).
- Noah Johnston is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jacob Brumm | Noah Johnston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-12.3 | 11.1-10.5 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 64.6% |
| Break % | 36.5% | 58.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Brumm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Alexander Petrov M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | William Kleege M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 06/05 | Jonathan Mridha M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Keshav Chopra M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 21/04 | Keaton Hance M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/04 | Corentin Denolly M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/04 | Andreja Petrovic M15 Boca Raton |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 10/04 | Mwendwa Mbithi M15 Boca Raton |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 09/04 | Vihaan Reddy M15 Boca Raton |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/04 | Zach Stephens M15 Boca Raton |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Noah Johnston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Hugo Hashimoto M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 01/07 | Noah Zamora M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Ozan Baris M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Lucas Marionneau M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Matt Kuhar M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/01 | Sachin Palta UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/01 | Santiago Giamichelle UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/01 | Elias Shokry UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/01 | Sutton Severance UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Brumm vs Noah Johnston?
Our model gives 60% to Noah Johnston, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.