Tennis · M15 Rancho Santa Fe · 09/07, 21:00
Prediction: Hiroki Sakagawa vs Emon Van Loben Sels
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Hiroki Sakagawa; the market gives 66% to Emon Van Loben Sels (odds 1.40).
On recent form, Hiroki Sakagawa is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Emon Van Loben Sels 5-5 over theirs.
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hiroki Sakagawa 1510 · Emon Van Loben Sels 1481
| Hiroki Sakagawa | Emon Van Loben Sels | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Emon Van Loben Sels makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Hiroki Sakagawa | Emon Van Loben Sels | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-8.7 | 13.4-11.4 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 61.1% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 55.9% | 58.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hiroki Sakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Roshan Santhosh M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Constantinos Djakouris M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-1 | 11-9 | W |
| 25/06 | Aidan Kim M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Roshan Santhosh M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Nathan Cox M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 16/12 | Ilya Snitari UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/12 | Ford McCollum UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/12 | Naara Shin UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 05/12 | Antreas Djakouris UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/12 | John Cross UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Emon Van Loben Sels
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Jean Baptiste Badon M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Alexander Rozin M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Rudy Quan M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 03/06 | Iiro Vasa M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 27/05 | Will Mayew M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/01 | Noah Zamora Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 02/01 | David Duong UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 31/12 | Winston Lee UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/12 | Hudson Rivera UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 27/12 | Antreas Djakouris UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hiroki Sakagawa vs Emon Van Loben Sels?
Our model gives 57% to Emon Van Loben Sels, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.