Tennis · M15 Rancho Santa Fe · 09/07, 19:30
Prediction: Alejandro Hayen vs Reece Falck
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Alejandro Hayen; the market gives 71% to Reece Falck (odds 1.33).
Recent form leaves Alejandro Hayen with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Reece Falck has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
61%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Hayen 1472 · Reece Falck 1470
| Alejandro Hayen | Reece Falck | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alejandro Hayen | Reece Falck | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-11.8 | 9.6-10.2 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 61.5% | 62.6% |
| Break % | 47.3% | 44% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Hayen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Joaquim Almeida M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 28/06 | Darwin Andres Macias Elizalde Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/06 | Tomas Martinez Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Ignacio Parisca Romera Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Artem Alekseychuk M15 Villahermosa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Rodrigo Alujas M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 22/04 | Lance A L Castelan M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/04 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/04 | Max Wiskandt Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Reece Falck
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Alexander Guajardo M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Vit Kalina M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Nathan Trouve M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Neo Niedner M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Diogo Morais M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 26/05 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-11 | L |
| 23/05 | Blu Baker UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/05 | Miles Clark UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/05 | Rohan Sachdev UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/05 | Bjorn Swenson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Hayen vs Reece Falck?
Our model gives 61% to Reece Falck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.