Tennis · M25 Dallas · 09/07, 20:00
Prediction: Sebastian Gorzny vs Landon Ardila
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Landon Ardila; the market gives 79% to Sebastian Gorzny (odds 1.17).
On recent form, Sebastian Gorzny is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Landon Ardila 8-2 over theirs.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Gorzny 1536 · Landon Ardila 1575
| Sebastian Gorzny | Landon Ardila | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Sebastian Gorzny | Landon Ardila | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.4 | 10.9-7.8 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 33.5% | 55.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Joshua Sheehy M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ozan Baris M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Blake Ellis M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Mikael Arseneault M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/11 | Loren Byers ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Raphael Perot ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Landon Ardila
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Georgi Georgiev M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Timo Legout Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Tyler Zink Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Santiago Giamichelle UTR Pro San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Tanapatt Nirundorn UTR Pro San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/08 | JanMagnus Johnson UTR Pro San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 29/08 | Elias Shokry UTR Pro San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/08 | Carter Pate UTR Pro San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 17/08 | Sean Hill UTR Pro San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Johann Lars UTR Pro San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Gorzny vs Landon Ardila?
Our model gives 64% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.