Tennis · WTA Newport · 09/07, 17:00
Prediction: Katherine Sebov vs Tatjana Maria
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Tatjana Maria; the market gives 79% to Tatjana Maria (odds 1.17).
Over their last 10 matches, Katherine Sebov sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Tatjana Maria arrives on a 7-3 run.
69%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katherine Sebov 1525 · Tatjana Maria 1562
| Katherine Sebov | Tatjana Maria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Katherine Sebov | Tatjana Maria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.4-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.4 | 10.2-7.7 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 5 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 54.5% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 51.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katherine Sebov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Cadence Brace WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Iryna Shymanovich Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 24/06 | Noma Noha Akugue Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 23/06 | Jazmin Ortenzi Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Allura Zamarripa WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Manon Leonard W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Chelsea Fontenel W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/06 | Carolyn Ansari W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Aysegul Mert W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Viktoria Hruncakova French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Tatjana Maria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Olivia Lincer WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Yulia Putintseva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Tereza Valentova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/06 | Jasmine Paolini WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Dayana Yastremska WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Janice Tjen WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katherine Sebov vs Tatjana Maria?
Our model gives 69% to Tatjana Maria, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.