Tennis · M15 Rancho Santa Fe · 08/07, 21:00
Prediction: Jack Anthrop vs Alexander Chang
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Jack Anthrop; the market gives 66% to Jack Anthrop (odds 1.40).
On recent form, Jack Anthrop is 8-2 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Alexander Chang 9-1 over theirs.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jack Anthrop 1551 · Alexander Chang 1490
| Jack Anthrop | Alexander Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jack Anthrop (rating 1551 vs 1490).
- Note: Alexander Chang makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Jack Anthrop | Alexander Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.1 | 12-11.8 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 39.1% | 37.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jack Anthrop
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11 | Aidan Kim ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/11 | Gavin Young ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/11 | Preston Stearns ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 13/11 | Jules Leroux ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 12/11 | JP Day ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/10 | Pedro Rodrigues ITF M15 Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Matt Kuhar ITF M15 Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 06/08 | Duncan Chan ITF M25 Southaven · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo ITF M25 Champaign · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Alexander Chang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Connor Church M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-1 | 11-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Aidan Kim M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 31/12 | Spencer Johnson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 29/12 | Vlad Cristian Breazu UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/12 | Cassius Chinlund UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/12 | Justin Chung UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Jacob Brumm Challenger Fairfield · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/09 | Max Basing ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Grigoriy Lomakin ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Joao Graca ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jack Anthrop vs Alexander Chang?
Our model gives 63% to Jack Anthrop, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.