Tennis · M15 San Salvador de Jujuy · 08/07, 15:30
Prediction: Ezequiel Monferrer vs Bastian Malla
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Bastian Malla; the market gives 81% to Bastian Malla (odds 1.14).
Over their last 10 matches, Ezequiel Monferrer sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Bastian Malla arrives on a 8-2 run.
72%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ezequiel Monferrer 1511 · Bastian Malla 1578
| Ezequiel Monferrer | Bastian Malla | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bastian Malla (rating 1511 vs 1578).
Statistics
| Ezequiel Monferrer | Bastian Malla | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.8 | 11.9-6.2 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 61.8% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 51.9% | 57% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ezequiel Monferrer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 San Salvador de Jujuy |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/06 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Wilson Leite Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 09/06 | Nicolas Villalon Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Amador Salazar Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 22/05 | Mateus Alves M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Nicolas Zanellato M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/05 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 14/05 | Wilson Leite M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Sidney Emanuel Meneguetti M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
Bastian Malla
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04 | Justin Roberts M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-1 | 5-7 | L |
| 23/04 | Joao Goncalves M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/04 | Gavin Goode M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/04 | Lachlan Gaskell M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/04 | Ignacio Monzon M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 14/04 | William Nolan M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/03 | Tomas Martinez M15 Punta Del Este · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 27/03 | Valentino Grippo M15 Punta Del Este · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/03 | Valentin Guadagno M15 Punta Del Este · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 25/03 | Gabriel Schenekenberg M15 Punta Del Este · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ezequiel Monferrer vs Bastian Malla?
Our model gives 72% to Bastian Malla, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.