Tennis · M25 Dallas · 08/07, 17:00
Prediction: Alexander Frusina vs Xavier Calvelo
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Xavier Calvelo; the market gives 59% to Alexander Frusina (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Alexander Frusina sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Xavier Calvelo arrives on a 6-4 run.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Frusina 1543 · Xavier Calvelo 1577
| Alexander Frusina | Xavier Calvelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Alexander Frusina makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Frusina | Xavier Calvelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-9.3 | 12.3-8.9 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 52.9% | 50.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Frusina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Alex Finkelstein M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/07 | Aziz Ouakaa M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Andrea Paolini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Ali Habib M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Milledge Cossu M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/06 | Roger Pascual Ferra M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Alaa Trifi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Liam Branger M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Dragos Nicolae Cazacu M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Gabi Adrian Boitan ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Xavier Calvelo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Robert Yang UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Aaron Eliscu UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/06 | JP Day UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Pavel Bushuev UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Andrew Li UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 23/06 | George Hakopian UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Maciej Rajski UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Cesar Cruz UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 12/06 | Patricio Alvarado UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Frusina vs Xavier Calvelo?
Our model gives 53% to Alexander Frusina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.