Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 09/07, 12:00
Prediction: Amit Vales vs Henry Searle
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Henry Searle; the market gives 83% to Henry Searle (odds 1.13).
Over their last 10 matches, Amit Vales sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Henry Searle arrives on a 7-3 run.
71%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amit Vales 1548 · Henry Searle 1599
| Amit Vales | Henry Searle | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Henry Searle (rating 1548 vs 1599).
- Henry Searle dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 41.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Amit Vales 0–1 Henry Searle (1).
- Note: Amit Vales makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Amit Vales | Henry Searle | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (3) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-10.8 | 14-10.5 |
| Aces | 2 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 80.3% |
| Break % | 41.5% | 41.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
H2H · Amit Vales 0 – 1 Henry Searle (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Amit Vales 0–1 Henry Searle
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 M15 Heraklion | 1-2 | 10-9 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amit Vales
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Marcus Walters Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/07 | Michael Zhu Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/06 | John Sperle Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 03/06 | Jean Baptiste Badon M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 31/05 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/05 | Spencer Johnson M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 29/05 | Vit Kalina M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Marko Mesarovic M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Henry Searle
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Vilius Gaubas Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Elias Ymer Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amit Vales vs Henry Searle?
Our model gives 71% to Henry Searle, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.