Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 09/07, 12:00
Prediction: Johannus Monday vs Arda Azkara
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Johannus Monday; the market gives 81% to Johannus Monday (odds 1.14).
On recent form, Johannus Monday is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Arda Azkara 5-5 over theirs.
68%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Johannus Monday 1510 · Arda Azkara 1505
| Johannus Monday | Arda Azkara | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Johannus Monday | Arda Azkara | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.6 | 11.1-10.3 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.8% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 31% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Johannus Monday
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Matthew Summers Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 29/05 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Braden Shick Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/05 | Christian Langmo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/05 | Adhithya Ganesan Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/05 | Samir Hamza Reguig M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/05 | Marwan Ehab M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Arda Azkara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Oliver Bonding Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Matias Reyniak M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/06 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 27/05 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Patrick Schoen M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/05 | Cagan Efe Tufekci M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/05 | Christof Schaertlin Coffey M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Johannus Monday vs Arda Azkara?
Our model gives 68% to Johannus Monday, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.