Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Patrick Brady vs Alastair Gray
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Alastair Gray; the market gives 72% to Alastair Gray (odds 1.30).
Recent form leaves Patrick Brady with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Alastair Gray has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patrick Brady 1513 · Alastair Gray 1526
| Patrick Brady | Alastair Gray | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alastair Gray dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 44.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Patrick Brady | Alastair Gray | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (6) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.7 | 12.8-10.8 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patrick Brady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Herman Hoeyeraal Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/07 | James Mackinlay Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/05 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/05 | Cyril Vandermeersch M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Raghav Jaisinghani M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/05 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Nottingham |
1-2 | 17-14 | L |
| 07/05 | Matt Ponchet M25 Nottingham |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
Alastair Gray
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | James Watt Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/06 | Henry Jefferson Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Edward Winter Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/05 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 21/05 | Mukund Sasikumar Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 20/05 | Dominik Palan Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patrick Brady vs Alastair Gray?
Our model gives 63% to Alastair Gray, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.