Prediction: Max Basing vs Luca Castelnuovo
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Max Basing; the market gives 72% to Max Basing (odds 1.30).
Recent form leaves Max Basing with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Luca Castelnuovo has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
| Max Basing | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Max Basing (rating 1508 vs 1454).
- Head-to-head: Max Basing 1–0 Luca Castelnuovo (1).
Statistics
| Max Basing | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (8) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-14 | 9.1-10.7 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 35.6% | 41% |
H2H · Max Basing 1 – 0 Luca Castelnuovo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Max Basing 1–0 Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/24 ITF M15 Bali | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Max Basing
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Filippo Romano Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 24/06 | Tom Gentzsch Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Francesco Maestrelli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 13/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 31/05 | Martin Damm Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/04 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-1 | 6-8 | L |
| 31/03 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Fares Zakaria Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/06 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Semen Pankin Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Felix Balshaw M15 Prijedor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Deni Hadzialijagic M15 Prijedor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Max Basing vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 66% to Max Basing, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.