Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 08/07, 12:00
Prediction: Ivan Ivanov vs Lui Maxted
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Lui Maxted; the market gives 50% to Lui Maxted (odds 1.83).
On recent form, Ivan Ivanov is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Lui Maxted 7-3 over theirs.
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ivan Ivanov 1519 · Lui Maxted 1531
| Ivan Ivanov | Lui Maxted | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Lui Maxted makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Ivan Ivanov | Lui Maxted | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (5) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-10.2 | 10.9-9.8 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 47.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ivan Ivanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Niels Visker Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/07 | Dinko Dinev Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 05/07 | Conor Gannon Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Zsombor Piros Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Kosice · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/05 | Radovan Michalik Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/05 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Sergi Perez Contri M25 Vic |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Lui Maxted
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Nikola Djukic Valera M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Porto |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/03 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/03 | Michalis Sakellaridis Challenger Hersonissos Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/03 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 02/03 | Stefan Dostanic Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ivan Ivanov vs Lui Maxted?
Our model gives 51% to Lui Maxted, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.