Tennis · M15 Rancho Santa Fe · 07/07, 21:00
Prediction: Nav Dayal vs Rafael De Alba
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Rafael De Alba; the market gives 50% to Rafael De Alba (odds 1.83).
Recent form leaves Nav Dayal with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Rafael De Alba has piled up 2-8 in the same span.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nav Dayal 1451 · Rafael De Alba 1494
| Nav Dayal | Rafael De Alba | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael De Alba (rating 1451 vs 1494).
Statistics
| Nav Dayal | Rafael De Alba | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.4 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.8-9.7 | 8.7-11 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 60.1% | 60.9% |
| Break % | 27.2% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nav Dayal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Bryce Nakashima M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | William Zhang M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Kenta Miyoshi M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Connor Church M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Lambert Ruland M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Timofey Stepanov M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Iiro Vasa M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/02 | Milos Karol M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 27/11 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-11 | L |
| 26/11 | Pavlos Christoforakis M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Rafael De Alba
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Theodore Dean M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Youssef Kadiri Hassani M15 San Diego · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 11/06 | Maxwell McKennon M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Muzammil Murtaza M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 04/06 | Dimitris Azoidis M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Haydar Cem Gokpinar M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Stefan Cooper M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Dimitris Azoidis M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/04 | Jerry Roddick M15 Villahermosa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Kether Naresh Gonzalez Gonzalez M15 Villahermosa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nav Dayal vs Rafael De Alba?
Our model gives 53% to Rafael De Alba, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.