Tennis · M15 Rancho Santa Fe · 07/07, 21:00
Prediction: Spencer Johnson vs Nile Ung
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 75% to Spencer Johnson; the market gives 91% to Spencer Johnson (odds 1.02).
Recent form leaves Spencer Johnson with 10 wins and 0 losses over 10 games; Nile Ung has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
84%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spencer Johnson 1684 · Nile Ung 1493
| Spencer Johnson | Nile Ung | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 25% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1684 vs 1493).
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 10 aces and 51.3% break avg.
- Spencer Johnson is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Spencer Johnson | Nile Ung | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.2 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-8.3 | 12.1-12.6 |
| Aces | 10 | – |
| Double faults | 2.1 | – |
| 1st serve % | 78% | – |
| Break % | 51.3% | – |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Alexander Rozin M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/06 | Jagger Leach M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/06 | Aidan Kim M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Bryce Nakashima M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Ronit Karki M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 21/06 | Bryce Nakashima M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/06 | Strong Kirchheimer M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Neo Niedner M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Jack Satterfield M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | William Kleege M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Nile Ung
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Vicente Freda UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Adam Bain UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/04 | Brayden Tallakson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/04 | Alessandro-D Ventre UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 01/04 | Adrien Jonah Abarca UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 01/04 | Evan Shamlian UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/03 | Antreas Djakouris UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 13/02 | Rohan Sachdev UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/02 | Liam Alvarez UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/02 | Sklar Phillips UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spencer Johnson vs Nile Ung?
Our model gives 84% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.