Tennis · M25 Dallas · 08/07, 17:00
Prediction: Joshua Sheehy vs Sebastian Gorzny
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Sebastian Gorzny; the market gives 59% to Sebastian Gorzny (odds 1.57).
On recent form, Joshua Sheehy is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Sebastian Gorzny 4-6 over theirs.
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joshua Sheehy 1483 · Sebastian Gorzny 1537
| Joshua Sheehy | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Gorzny (rating 1483 vs 1537).
- Sebastian Gorzny is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Joshua Sheehy makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Joshua Sheehy | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.2 | 11.2-10.7 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 35.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joshua Sheehy
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 24/05 | Daniel Masur Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/05 | Nerman Fatic Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/04 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Savannah · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Tyler Zink Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/04 | Bruno Kuzuhara Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/02 | Axel Nefve Challenger Metepec · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 15/02 | Andres Guerra Challenger Metepec · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/02 | Borna Gojo Challenger Cleveland · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/02 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Cleveland · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Ozan Baris M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Blake Ellis M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Mikael Arseneault M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/11 | Loren Byers ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Raphael Perot ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/10 | Andreja Petrovic ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joshua Sheehy vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 58% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.