Tennis · M25 Dallas · 07/07, 20:00
Prediction: Jie Cui vs Matthew Forbes
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Matthew Forbes; the market gives 63% to Jie Cui (odds 1.50).
Over their last 10 matches, Jie Cui sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Matthew Forbes arrives on a 4-6 run.
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jie Cui 1496 · Matthew Forbes 1521
| Jie Cui | Matthew Forbes | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matthew Forbes dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 55.1% break avg.
- Note: Matthew Forbes makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Jie Cui | Matthew Forbes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.8 | 12.1-10.5 |
| Aces | 3 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 6.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 79.4% |
| Break % | 57.9% | 55.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jie Cui
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Dmitry Popko M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Alejandro Jacome Jaramillo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 22/05 | Qian Sun M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 21/05 | Shixun Zhu M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Jesse Delaney M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 09/05 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/05 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/05 | Alastair Gray Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Matthew Forbes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Baton Rouge · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/01 | William Grant M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/01 | Dhakshineswar Suresh M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/11 | Aidan Mchugh ITF M25 East Lansing · Hard |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 06/11 | Sasha Colleu ITF M25 East Lansing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/11 | Vuk Radjenovic ITF M25 East Lansing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 26/10 | Raphael Perot ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/10 | Alex Martinez ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 24/10 | Kaylan Bigun ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/10 | Henry Searle ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jie Cui vs Matthew Forbes?
Our model gives 55% to Jie Cui, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.