Prediction: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Marco Alvarez
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Karl Kazuma Lee; the market gives 81% to Karl Kazuma Lee (odds 1.14).
On recent form, Karl Kazuma Lee is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Marco Alvarez 5-5 over theirs.
| Karl Kazuma Lee | Marco Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karl Kazuma Lee (rating 1519 vs 1457).
- Head-to-head: Karl Kazuma Lee 1–0 Marco Alvarez (1).
Statistics
| Karl Kazuma Lee | Marco Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10 | 9.6-10.7 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 38.5% | 55.5% |
H2H · Karl Kazuma Lee 1 – 0 Marco Alvarez (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karl Kazuma Lee 1–0 Marco Alvarez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 UTR Pro Newport Beach | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karl Kazuma Lee
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Rudy Quan M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Alexander Guajardo M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/06 | Cesar Cruz M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Alexander Rozin M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Matt Kuhar M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Alexander Petrov M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 27/05 | Vit Kalina M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Joshua Peck M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 23/05 | Xavier Calvelo UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/05 | Antreas Djakouris UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Marco Alvarez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | Avery Tallakson M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Rohan Sachdev UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Max K Fardanesh UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/05 | Jonty Giesen UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/05 | William Chase Thompson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 13/05 | Noah Zamora UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Justin Riley Anson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/04 | Mees Rottgering M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-11 | L |
| 22/04 | Tadeo Meneo M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/04 | Wilhelm Saiga M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karl Kazuma Lee vs Marco Alvarez?
Our model gives 71% to Karl Kazuma Lee, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.