Tennis · M25 Dallas · 07/07, 18:30
Prediction: Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes vs Xavier Calvelo
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Xavier Calvelo; the market gives 65% to Xavier Calvelo (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Xavier Calvelo has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes 1523 · Xavier Calvelo 1582
| Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes | Xavier Calvelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Xavier Calvelo (rating 1523 vs 1582).
Statistics
| Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes | Xavier Calvelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-10.7 | 12.2-8.4 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 61.2% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 44.5% | 51% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Jose Garcia UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Blake Hilsen UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 23/06 | Atakan Karahan UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 05/12 | Loan Lestir UTR Pro Oxford · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/12 | Marshall Landry UTR Pro Oxford · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 02/12 | Gordon Whitwell UTR Pro Oxford · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/12 | Noah Schlagenhauf UTR Pro Oxford · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/11 | Stefano D'Agostino UTR Pro Oxford · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/11 | Stijn Paardekooper ITF M15 Tallahassee · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 19/11 | Evan Bynoe ITF M15 Tallahassee · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Xavier Calvelo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Robert Yang UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Aaron Eliscu UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/06 | JP Day UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Pavel Bushuev UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Andrew Li UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 23/06 | George Hakopian UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Maciej Rajski UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Cesar Cruz UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 12/06 | Patricio Alvarado UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | George Hakopian UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes vs Xavier Calvelo?
Our model gives 62% to Xavier Calvelo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.