Tennis · M25 Dallas · 07/07, 18:30
Prediction: Alexander Frusina vs Alex Finkelstein
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Alexander Frusina; the market gives 75% to Alexander Frusina (odds 1.25).
Recent form leaves Alexander Frusina with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Alex Finkelstein has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Frusina 1537 · Alex Finkelstein 1486
| Alexander Frusina | Alex Finkelstein | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Frusina (rating 1537 vs 1486).
- Note: Alexander Frusina makes many double faults (4.3/match).
- Note: Alex Finkelstein makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Frusina | Alex Finkelstein | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-9.8 | 9.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 5.8 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 60.9% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Frusina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Aziz Ouakaa M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Andrea Paolini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Ali Habib M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Milledge Cossu M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/06 | Roger Pascual Ferra M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Alaa Trifi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Liam Branger M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Dragos Nicolae Cazacu M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Gabi Adrian Boitan ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/10 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Alex Finkelstein
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-7 | L |
| 12/05 | Francisco Montana M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/02 | Tristan Boyer ATP Dallas · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Juan Carlos Aguilar ITF M25 Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/11 | William Grant ITF M25 Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/11 | Joshua Peck ITF M25 Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/11 | Ranak Pajpani ITF M25 Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 28/10 | Matisse Farzam ITF M15 Trois-Rivieres |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Alexis Gurmendi ITF M15 Huntsville · Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso ITF M15 Santa Tecla · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Frusina vs Alex Finkelstein?
Our model gives 67% to Alexander Frusina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.