Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 08/07, 08:30
Prediction: Klara Vaja vs Adithya Karunaratne
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Adithya Karunaratne; the market gives 92% to Adithya Karunaratne (odds 1.02).
Over their last 10 matches, Klara Vaja sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Adithya Karunaratne arrives on a 8-2 run.
79%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Klara Vaja 1451 · Adithya Karunaratne 1553
| Klara Vaja | Adithya Karunaratne | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 8% | 92% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adithya Karunaratne (rating 1451 vs 1553).
- Adithya Karunaratne is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Klara Vaja makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Klara Vaja | Adithya Karunaratne | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 30% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.4 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 7-10.2 | 12.1-8.1 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 51.5% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 42.7% | 62.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Klara Vaja
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Katya Ramirez W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Doroteja Petrovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Fangyu Shang W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Julia Stamatova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Sara Cozma W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Sameeksha Shroff W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/05 | Yiming Dang W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Galatea Ferro W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-9 | L |
| 11/05 | Andzhelina Kostova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Gala Ivanovic W15 Beograd · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Adithya Karunaratne
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Nina Radovanovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 14/05 | Amelia Paszun W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/05 | Lavinia Luciano W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 05/05 | Yuliya Hatouka W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Marie Villet W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 19/04 | Iva Ivanova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 18/04 | Eva Marie Voracek W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/04 | Carolyn Ansari W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/04 | Lavinia Luciano W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/04 | Cristina Pescucci W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Klara Vaja vs Adithya Karunaratne?
Our model gives 79% to Adithya Karunaratne, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.