Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 08/07, 08:30
Prediction: Noemi La Cagnina vs Elza Tomase
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Elza Tomase; the market gives 87% to Elza Tomase (odds 1.08).
Recent form leaves Noemi La Cagnina with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Elza Tomase has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
74%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Noemi La Cagnina 1482 · Elza Tomase 1543
| Noemi La Cagnina | Elza Tomase | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elza Tomase (rating 1482 vs 1543).
Statistics
| Noemi La Cagnina | Elza Tomase | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.3 | 1.2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.9-10.4 | 9-7.6 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 55.4% | 63.4% |
| Break % | 44.5% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Noemi La Cagnina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Milica Stosovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Anastasia Safta W15 Galati · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 22/06 | NataliaNicole Constantin W15 Galati · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Agnese Gentili W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Tahlia Kokkinis W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Azzurra Cremonini W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/05 | Laura Hietaranta W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Lisa Peer W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-10 | W |
| 29/04 | Katerina Tsygourova W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Francesca Gandolfi W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-12 | L |
Elza Tomase
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Anja Stankovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Anna Petkovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Dunja Maric W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Dana Charintceva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Aleksandra Pozarenko W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Mina Hodzic W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Ipek Oz W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Amelie Justine Hejtmanek W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/05 | Nika Cakarun W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 11/03 | Natalija Senic W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Noemi La Cagnina vs Elza Tomase?
Our model gives 74% to Elza Tomase, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.