Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 08/07, 08:30
Prediction: Aleksandra Pozarenko vs Viktoria Veleva
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Aleksandra Pozarenko; the market gives 59% to Aleksandra Pozarenko (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Aleksandra Pozarenko sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Viktoria Veleva arrives on a 3-7 run.
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandra Pozarenko 1468 · Viktoria Veleva 1462
| Aleksandra Pozarenko | Viktoria Veleva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Aleksandra Pozarenko makes many double faults (5.3/match).
- Note: Viktoria Veleva makes many double faults (9.4/match).
Statistics
| Aleksandra Pozarenko | Viktoria Veleva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10.5 | 10.3-11.6 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 9.4 |
| 1st serve % | 57.8% | 51.5% |
| Break % | 47.8% | 60% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandra Pozarenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Nadja Mladenovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Elza Tomase W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Anna Shkutova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Ada Kumru W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Sara Pantelic W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/02 | Lucie Petruzelova W15 Manacor |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/02 | Sevil Yuldasheva W15 Manacor |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/02 | Didi Bredberg Canizares W15 Manacor |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/02 | Maayan Laron W15 Manacor |
1-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 10/12 | Viktoria Morvayova W35 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Viktoria Veleva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Dunja Maric W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Mariya Yemshanova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Sofia Rocchetti W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Darya Velikova W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 07/05 | Oana Georgeta Simion W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Mariia Masiianskaia W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 30/04 | Andrea Lola Popovic W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/04 | Amira Badawi W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/03 | Katharina Hobgarski W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Julia Stamatova W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandra Pozarenko vs Viktoria Veleva?
Our model gives 55% to Aleksandra Pozarenko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.