Tennis · W35 Don Benito · 07/07, 08:00
Prediction: Naomi McKenzie vs Vanja Gudelj
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 71% to Naomi McKenzie; the market gives 84% to Naomi McKenzie (odds 1.11).
Over their last 10 matches, Naomi McKenzie sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Vanja Gudelj arrives on a 2-8 run.
78%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naomi McKenzie 1572 · Vanja Gudelj 1417
| Naomi McKenzie | Vanja Gudelj | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi McKenzie (rating 1572 vs 1417).
- Naomi McKenzie is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Vanja Gudelj makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Naomi McKenzie | Vanja Gudelj | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (5) | 14% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.6 | 0.4-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-6.9 | 7.2-10.6 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0 |
| Double faults | 2 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 59.1% | 52% |
| Break % | 53.2% | 38% |
Estimated total games (ours)
18.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi McKenzie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Himari Sato ITF W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Elena Micic ITF W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Cara Korhonen ITF W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Belle Thompson UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Kaylah McPhee UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/08 | Kirra Bond-Scott UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 18/08 | Grace Cadwallader UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 18/08 | Bridget Mihulka UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Gabriella Da Silva Fick ITF W15 Tweed Heads |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Catherine Aulia ITF W15 Tweed Heads |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Vanja Gudelj
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Polina Isakova W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Valentina Losciale W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/05 | Iulia Andreea Ionescu UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/05 | Sana Garakani UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/05 | Nela Silova UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/04 | Beata Havlickova UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Michelle Dzjachangirova UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Suana Tucakovic UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Kate Gardiner UTR Pro Match Series Women · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/04 | Sari Van Ham UTR Pro Match Series Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi McKenzie vs Vanja Gudelj?
Our model gives 78% to Naomi McKenzie, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.