Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 07/07, 16:30
Prediction: William Jansen vs Felix Gill
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to William Jansen; the market gives 66% to Felix Gill (odds 1.40).
Over their last 10 matches, William Jansen sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Felix Gill arrives on a 1-9 run.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · William Jansen 1503 · Felix Gill 1436
| William Jansen | Felix Gill | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours William Jansen (rating 1503 vs 1436).
Statistics
| William Jansen | Felix Gill | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (4) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 0.8-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.8 | 12-15.3 |
| Aces | 8.3 | 12.3 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 67.2% |
| Break % | 33.3% | 26.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
William Jansen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Theo Papamalamis Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 05/07 | Sam Ryan Ziegann Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/06 | Dev Javia M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 13/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 31/05 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/01 | Sachin Palta UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/01 | Jordan Chang UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/01 | Liam Kilmer UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/01 | Cyrus Ahmad UTR Pro Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/11 | Aidan Kim ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Felix Gill
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 22/05 | Kyrian Jacquet French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Alex Molcan French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in William Jansen vs Felix Gill?
Our model gives 55% to Felix Gill, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.