Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 07/07, 13:30
Prediction: Patrick Brady vs Herman Hoeyeraal
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Herman Hoeyeraal; the market gives 69% to Patrick Brady (odds 1.36).
On recent form, Patrick Brady is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Herman Hoeyeraal 7-3 over theirs.
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patrick Brady 1506 · Herman Hoeyeraal 1564
| Patrick Brady | Herman Hoeyeraal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Herman Hoeyeraal (rating 1506 vs 1564).
- Herman Hoeyeraal dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 53% break avg.
- Herman Hoeyeraal is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Patrick Brady | Herman Hoeyeraal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.3 | 11.7-8.5 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patrick Brady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/07 | James Mackinlay Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/05 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/05 | Cyril Vandermeersch M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Raghav Jaisinghani M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/05 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Nottingham |
1-2 | 17-14 | L |
| 07/05 | Matt Ponchet M25 Nottingham |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/05 | Paul Jubb M25 Nottingham |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Herman Hoeyeraal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Finn Bass Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/07 | Phoenix Weir Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Nino Ehrenschneider M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Alan Wazny M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 27/06 | Stefan Seifert M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 26/06 | Aleksandr Braynin M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Oskari Paldanius M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/06 | Noel Larwig M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 23/05 | Mateus Alves M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patrick Brady vs Herman Hoeyeraal?
Our model gives 57% to Patrick Brady, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.