Tennis · W35 Don Benito · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Melisa Ercan vs Tiphanie Lemaitre
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Melisa Ercan; the market gives 50% to Melisa Ercan (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Melisa Ercan sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Tiphanie Lemaitre arrives on a 6-4 run.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melisa Ercan 1558 · Tiphanie Lemaitre 1497
| Melisa Ercan | Tiphanie Lemaitre | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melisa Ercan (rating 1558 vs 1497).
- Note: Tiphanie Lemaitre makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Melisa Ercan | Tiphanie Lemaitre | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-9.9 | 10.9-12.1 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 56.5% | 56% |
| Break % | 43.1% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melisa Ercan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Duru Soke W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Irem Kurt W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Amelie Smejkalova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Nikoletta Muller W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Eva Panova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/11 | Sofia Shapatava W35 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 27/11 | Denislava Glushkova W35 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 25/11 | Maria Shmeleva W35 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/11 | Britt Du Pree ITF W35 Faro · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 06/11 | Haruka Kaji ITF W35 Faro · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Tiphanie Lemaitre
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Han Shi W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Kristina Mladenovic W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Anna Kubareva W35 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Aleksandra Iankovskaia W35 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Zoziya Kardava W35 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/05 | Lisa Zaar W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/05 | Deborah Chiesa W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 30/04 | Katerina Tsygourova W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 29/04 | Astrid Wanja Brune Olsen W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 22/04 | Luna Vujovic W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melisa Ercan vs Tiphanie Lemaitre?
Our model gives 54% to Melisa Ercan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.