Prediction: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Carol Zhao
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Lucrezia Stefanini; the market gives 78% to Lucrezia Stefanini (odds 1.20).
Recent form leaves Lucrezia Stefanini with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Carol Zhao has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Carol Zhao | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucrezia Stefanini (rating 1593 vs 1486).
- Lucrezia Stefanini is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lucrezia Stefanini 1–0 Carol Zhao (1).
- Note: Carol Zhao makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Carol Zhao | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-8.6 | 9-10.8 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 6.1 |
| 1st serve % | 55.9% | 62% |
| Break % | 52.9% | 40.4% |
H2H · Lucrezia Stefanini 1 – 0 Carol Zhao (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucrezia Stefanini 1–0 Carol Zhao
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/25 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucrezia Stefanini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Savannah Broadus W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/07 | Yexin Ma W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/07 | Kristina Liutova W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/07 | Haruka Kaji W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Yuki Naito W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/06 | Katarzyna Kawa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Luisina Giovannini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Yeon Woo Ku WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Vendula Valdmannova WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Carol Zhao
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Justina Mikulskyte Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Celine Naef WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Katarina Zavatska French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Yidi Yang WTA Jiujiang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/05 | Peangtarn Plipuech WTA Jiujiang · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/04 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Huzhou · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Lin Zhu W100 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/04 | Kyoka Okamura W100 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/04 | Yiming Dang W100 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/04 | Rina Saigo W35 Miyazaki · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucrezia Stefanini vs Carol Zhao?
Our model gives 72% to Lucrezia Stefanini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.