Tennis · M15 San Salvador de Jujuy · 06/07, 18:00
Prediction: Tomas Jordi Leston vs Leonel Cesar Castro
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Tomas Jordi Leston; the market gives 49% to Tomas Jordi Leston (odds 1.91).
Recent form leaves Tomas Jordi Leston with 2 wins and 8 losses over 10 games; Leonel Cesar Castro has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Jordi Leston 1475 · Leonel Cesar Castro 1467
| Tomas Jordi Leston | Leonel Cesar Castro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Tomas Jordi Leston | Leonel Cesar Castro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-11.3 | 9.2-11 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 0 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 59.1% | 52.3% |
| Break % | 48.9% | 23% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Jordi Leston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | Gabriel Schenekenberg M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Benjamin Chelia M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-11 | W |
| 18/11 | Dante Pagani ITF M15 Olavarria · Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 05/11 | Pedro Boscardin Dias ITF M25 Santa Cruz do Sul |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/11 | Marvin Spiering ITF M25 Santa Cruz do Sul |
1-2 | 7-9 | L |
| 28/10 | Gian Gruenig ITF M25 Lajeado · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Victor A De Castro Rocha ITF M25 Lajeado · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Toufik Sahtali M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Ignasi Forcano M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 09/09 | Oliver Johansson M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Leonel Cesar Castro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Lautaro Agustin Falabella Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/05 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi M25 Villa Maria · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Lucio Ratti M25 Lujan · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/04 | Valentin Garay UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/04 | Nocolas A Jara Lozano UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 16/04 | Felipe Dreer UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/04 | Francisco Tomas Geschwind UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/04 | Lautaro Agustin Falabella UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Jordi Leston vs Leonel Cesar Castro?
Our model gives 50% to Tomas Jordi Leston, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.