Prediction: Manuel Mouilleron Salvo vs Mateo Carballo
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Manuel Mouilleron Salvo; the market gives 71% to Manuel Mouilleron Salvo (odds 1.33).
On recent form, Manuel Mouilleron Salvo is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Mateo Carballo 1-9 over theirs.
| Manuel Mouilleron Salvo | Mateo Carballo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manuel Mouilleron Salvo (rating 1499 vs 1392).
- Manuel Mouilleron Salvo is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Manuel Mouilleron Salvo 1–0 Mateo Carballo (1).
- Note: Manuel Mouilleron Salvo makes many double faults (4/match).
- Note: Mateo Carballo makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Manuel Mouilleron Salvo | Mateo Carballo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 10% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 11% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 0.4-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10 | 7.1-12.7 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Double faults | 4 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.4% | 51.4% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 57.7% |
H2H · Manuel Mouilleron Salvo 1 – 0 Mateo Carballo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manuel Mouilleron Salvo 1–0 Mateo Carballo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/25 UTR Pro Cordoba | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manuel Mouilleron Salvo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Ezequiel Monferrer M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 18/05 | Petr Iamachkine M15 Maringa Qual · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/05 | Victor Alvares De Castro Rocha M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Frazier Rengifo M15 Quito · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Juan Sebastian Dominguez Collado M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-7 | W |
| 26/04 | Mauricio Pinto M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 24/04 | Angel Veliz M15 Quito · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/04 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/04 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Mateo Carballo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Julian Cundom Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Valentin Garay M25 Villa Maria · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Carlos Maria Zarate M15 La Plata |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 26/11 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo ITF M15 Santiago · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/11 | Luka Bojicic Ono ITF M15 Santiago · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 12/11 | Tomas Martinez ITF M15 Azul · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Felipe De Dios UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Francisco Tomas Geschwind UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Felipe Dreer UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Manuel Mouilleron Salvo vs Mateo Carballo?
Our model gives 68% to Manuel Mouilleron Salvo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.