Tennis · WTA Newport · 06/07, 20:10
Prediction: Katie Volynets vs Ariana Arseneault
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Katie Volynets; the market gives 88% to Katie Volynets (odds 1.06).
On recent form, Katie Volynets is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Ariana Arseneault 5-5 over theirs.
74%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katie Volynets 1571 · Ariana Arseneault 1518
| Katie Volynets | Ariana Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Katie Volynets (rating 1571 vs 1518).
- Note: Ariana Arseneault makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Katie Volynets | Ariana Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 78% (9) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.3 | 11.5-12 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 61.6% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katie Volynets
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Leolia Jeanjean Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Elizara Yaneva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Laura Samsonova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 13/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 07/06 | Lin Zhu WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 06/06 | Nao Hibino WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/05 | Marta Kostyuk French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Ariana Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Victoria Osuigwe WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Tatum Evans W100 Cary · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 26/06 | Jo Yee Chan W35 Rome |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Elizabeth Ionescu W35 Rome |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Monika Ekstrand W35 Rome |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/06 | Katarina Kuzmova W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Fangran Tian W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/06 | Maria Oliver Sanchez W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Angelina Voloshchuk W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 22/05 | Nahia Berecoechea W35 Estepona · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katie Volynets vs Ariana Arseneault?
Our model gives 74% to Katie Volynets, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.