Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 06/07, 12:00
Prediction: Finn Bass vs Herman Hoeyeraal
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 67% to Herman Hoeyeraal; the market gives 50% to Herman Hoeyeraal (odds 1.83).
On recent form, Finn Bass is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Herman Hoeyeraal 7-3 over theirs.
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Finn Bass 1452 · Herman Hoeyeraal 1577
| Finn Bass | Herman Hoeyeraal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Herman Hoeyeraal (rating 1452 vs 1577).
- Finn Bass dominates on serve: 9 aces and 40.7% break avg.
- Herman Hoeyeraal dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 53% break avg.
- Herman Hoeyeraal is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Finn Bass makes many double faults (5.4/match).
- Note: Herman Hoeyeraal makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Finn Bass | Herman Hoeyeraal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.7 | 12.3-9.6 |
| Aces | 9 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 76.1% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Finn Bass
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Nikola Slavic Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 22/03 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Split · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/02 | Stefan Dostanic Challenger Baton Rouge · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/02 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Cleveland · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 01/02 | Ryan Fishback Challenger Cleveland · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/01 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Glasgow · Hard |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 04/01 | James Story Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/11 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Playford · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 24/11 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Playford · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Herman Hoeyeraal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Phoenix Weir Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Nino Ehrenschneider M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Alan Wazny M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 27/06 | Stefan Seifert M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 26/06 | Aleksandr Braynin M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Oskari Paldanius M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/06 | Noel Larwig M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 23/05 | Mateus Alves M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Salvador Price M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Finn Bass vs Herman Hoeyeraal?
Our model gives 58% to Herman Hoeyeraal, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.