Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 06/07, 13:30
Prediction: Amit Vales vs Michael Zhu
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Amit Vales; the market gives 71% to Amit Vales (odds 1.33).
Recent form leaves Amit Vales with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Michael Zhu has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amit Vales 1518 · Michael Zhu 1438
| Amit Vales | Michael Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amit Vales (rating 1518 vs 1438).
- Amit Vales is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Amit Vales | Michael Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 0% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.8 | 9.6-12.3 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.6% | 60.6% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 33.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amit Vales
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/06 | John Sperle Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 03/06 | Jean Baptiste Badon M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 31/05 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/05 | Spencer Johnson M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 29/05 | Vit Kalina M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Marko Mesarovic M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Lucca Liu M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/05 | Naoya Honda Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Michael Zhu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Liam Hignett Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/06 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Daniel Jade Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Daniel De Jonge Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 14/06 | Mark Vervoort Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/05 | Orel Kimhi Challenger Centurion Qual · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 24/05 | Thando Longwe-Smit Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Liam Delicata M25 Loule · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/04 | Tiago Pereira M25 Quinta do Lago · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amit Vales vs Michael Zhu?
Our model gives 67% to Amit Vales, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.