Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 06/07, 11:00
Prediction: Ryan Seggerman vs Patrick Brady
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Ryan Seggerman; the market gives 56% to Ryan Seggerman (odds 1.67).
Recent form leaves Ryan Seggerman with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Patrick Brady has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryan Seggerman 1541 · Patrick Brady 1473
| Ryan Seggerman | Patrick Brady | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryan Seggerman (rating 1541 vs 1473).
- Ryan Seggerman is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ryan Seggerman | Patrick Brady | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-12.9 | 11.6-10.7 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.9% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 27.3% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryan Seggerman
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Ali Habib Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Luca Wiedenmann Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 14/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 31/05 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/05 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/05 | Jay Clarke Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 07/05 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 05/05 | Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Patrick Brady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | James Mackinlay Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/05 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/05 | Cyril Vandermeersch M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Raghav Jaisinghani M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/05 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Nottingham |
1-2 | 17-14 | L |
| 07/05 | Matt Ponchet M25 Nottingham |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/05 | Paul Jubb M25 Nottingham |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/04 | Finn Murgett M25 Nottingham |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryan Seggerman vs Patrick Brady?
Our model gives 58% to Ryan Seggerman, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.