Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 07/07, 12:00
Prediction: Johannus Monday vs Matthew Summers
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Johannus Monday; the market gives 86% to Johannus Monday (odds 1.10).
Over their last 10 matches, Johannus Monday sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Matthew Summers arrives on a 5-5 run.
74%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Johannus Monday 1509 · Matthew Summers 1439
| Johannus Monday | Matthew Summers | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Johannus Monday (rating 1509 vs 1439).
- Matthew Summers dominates on serve: 6 aces and 46.6% break avg.
- Johannus Monday is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Johannus Monday | Matthew Summers | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.3 | 10.4-11.5 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Johannus Monday
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 29/05 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Braden Shick Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/05 | Christian Langmo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/05 | Adhithya Ganesan Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/05 | Samir Hamza Reguig M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/05 | Marwan Ehab M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/05 | Vincent Dullinger M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Matthew Summers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Yuta Tomida M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 07/05 | Jaesung Choe M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Ye Chen M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/04 | Hyeon Chung M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Cruz Hewitt M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/04 | Keisuke Saitoh M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/04 | Thantub Suksumrarn M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 14/04 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Johannus Monday vs Matthew Summers?
Our model gives 74% to Johannus Monday, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.