Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 07/07, 12:00
Prediction: Yi Zhou vs Robin Catry
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Yi Zhou; the market gives 78% to Yi Zhou (odds 1.20).
Over their last 10 matches, Yi Zhou sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Robin Catry arrives on a 5-5 run.
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yi Zhou 1541 · Robin Catry 1493
| Yi Zhou | Robin Catry | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yi Zhou (rating 1541 vs 1493).
- Yi Zhou dominates on serve: 10.9 aces and 50.2% break avg.
- Note: Robin Catry makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Yi Zhou | Robin Catry | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-11.1 | 11.7-12.1 |
| Aces | 10.9 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 50.2% | 41.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-20 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefano Travaglia Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/06 | Guy Den Ouden Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Benjamin Willwerth Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 15/06 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | James McGloughlin Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/06 | Ben Jones Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Matej Dodig French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Robin Catry
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Dan Added M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Clement Lemire M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Mikail Alimli M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Mert Alkaya M25 Porto |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 17/06 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Daniel Lara Salmeron M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Luciano Barbarino M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Kevin Edengren M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 18/05 | Evgeny Karlovskiy M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yi Zhou vs Robin Catry?
Our model gives 69% to Yi Zhou, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.