Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 07/07, 12:00
Prediction: Lui Maxted vs Antoine Ghibaudo
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Lui Maxted; the market gives 42% to Lui Maxted (odds 2.20).
On recent form, Lui Maxted is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Antoine Ghibaudo 4-6 over theirs.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lui Maxted 1519 · Antoine Ghibaudo 1445
| Lui Maxted | Antoine Ghibaudo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lui Maxted (rating 1519 vs 1445).
- Lui Maxted is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Lui Maxted makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Lui Maxted | Antoine Ghibaudo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10 | 10.9-11.9 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 6 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 31.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lui Maxted
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Nikola Djukic Valera M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Porto |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/03 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/03 | Michalis Sakellaridis Challenger Hersonissos Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/03 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 02/03 | Stefan Dostanic Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/03 | James Story Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Antoine Ghibaudo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Adam Walton ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Petr Bar Biryukov ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Oliver Okonkwo Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 31/05 | James Watt Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Michael Zheng French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Tunis · Clay |
1-1 | 10-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Skander Nsairi Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/05 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/05 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lui Maxted vs Antoine Ghibaudo?
Our model gives 51% to Lui Maxted, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.