Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 05/07, 15:00
Prediction: Amit Vales vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Amit Vales; the market gives 65% to Amit Vales (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Amit Vales with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; William Rejchtman Vinciguerra has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amit Vales 1523 · William Rejchtman Vinciguerra 1436
| Amit Vales | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amit Vales (rating 1523 vs 1436).
- Amit Vales is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Amit Vales | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.9 | 8.8-11.5 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 62.7% |
| Break % | 39.9% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amit Vales
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/06 | John Sperle Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 03/06 | Jean Baptiste Badon M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 31/05 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/05 | Spencer Johnson M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 29/05 | Vit Kalina M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Marko Mesarovic M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Lucca Liu M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/05 | Naoya Honda Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Maan Kesharwani Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Stijn Paardekooper M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Romain Faucon Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Anton Shepp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
| 10/06 | Filip Gustafsson M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/05 | Taro Daniel Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Marko Miladinovic M25 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Caheer Warik M25 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/05 | Egor Pleshivtsev M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/04 | Andrea Colombo M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 23/04 | Jacob Bradshaw M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amit Vales vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra?
Our model gives 64% to Amit Vales, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.