Tennis · Challenger Nottingham · 05/07, 12:00
Prediction: Theo Papamalamis vs Nicolas Parizzia
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Theo Papamalamis; the market gives 78% to Theo Papamalamis (odds 1.20).
Recent form leaves Theo Papamalamis with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Nicolas Parizzia has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
72%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Theo Papamalamis 1559 · Nicolas Parizzia 1452
| Theo Papamalamis | Nicolas Parizzia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Theo Papamalamis (rating 1559 vs 1452).
- Theo Papamalamis is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Theo Papamalamis | Nicolas Parizzia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-8.9 | 10.4-12.3 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 52.1% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Theo Papamalamis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Melios Efstathiou M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Mika Petkovic M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 19/06 | Giammarco Gandolfi M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 18/06 | Giacomo Crisostomo M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Louis Van Herck M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/06 | Stefan Horia Haita M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/06 | Kai Wehnelt M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Arian Barbic M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Nicolas Parizzia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Benedikt Szerencsits M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Giuseppe La Vela M15 Litija · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 20/05 | Noah Lopez M15 Litija · ~Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 05/05 | Lorenzo Rottoli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 04/05 | Leonardo Taddia M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/04 | Stefan Popovic M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 15/04 | Ioannis Kountourakis M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Theo Papamalamis vs Nicolas Parizzia?
Our model gives 72% to Theo Papamalamis, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.