Tennis · WTA Newport · 05/07, 21:00
Prediction: Ariana Arseneault vs Victoria Osuigwe
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Ariana Arseneault; the market gives 65% to Ariana Arseneault (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Ariana Arseneault with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Victoria Osuigwe has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ariana Arseneault 1493 · Victoria Osuigwe 1481
| Ariana Arseneault | Victoria Osuigwe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Ariana Arseneault makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Victoria Osuigwe makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Ariana Arseneault | Victoria Osuigwe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 0.8-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-11.4 | 9.6-9 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.4% | 61.8% |
| Break % | 43.9% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ariana Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Tatum Evans W100 Cary · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 26/06 | Jo Yee Chan W35 Rome |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Elizabeth Ionescu W35 Rome |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Monika Ekstrand W35 Rome |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/06 | Katarina Kuzmova W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Fangran Tian W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/06 | Maria Oliver Sanchez W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Angelina Voloshchuk W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 22/05 | Nahia Berecoechea W35 Estepona · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 21/05 | Berta Bonardi W35 Estepona · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Victoria Osuigwe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Momoko Kobori W100 Cary · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Alden Russell UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Susana Souhrada UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/06 | Malwina Rowinska UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Lillian Santos UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Chelsea Casapu UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/06 | Lina Glushko W100 Sumter · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Edda Mamedova W100 Sumter · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-3 | W |
| 27/05 | Sahaja Yamalapalli W35 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/11 | Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez ITF W50 Austin · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ariana Arseneault vs Victoria Osuigwe?
Our model gives 59% to Ariana Arseneault, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.