Tennis · WTA Newport · 05/07, 19:30
Prediction: Alana Smith vs Sydney Jara
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Sydney Jara; the market gives 73% to Alana Smith (odds 1.28).
Over their last 10 matches, Alana Smith sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Sydney Jara arrives on a 7-3 run.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alana Smith 1480 · Sydney Jara 1562
| Alana Smith | Sydney Jara | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sydney Jara (rating 1480 vs 1562).
- Sydney Jara is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alana Smith | Sydney Jara | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.7 | 10.9-7.4 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 65.4% |
| Break % | 40.2% | 66.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alana Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Sofia Johnson W100 Cary · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Anna Frey W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Valentina Ryser WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
1-2 | 17-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Min Liu WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/06 | Carolyn Ansari W100 Sumter · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/05 | Lisa Zaar WTA Rabat · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Victoria Bosio WTA Rabat · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/05 | Hannah Klugman W35 Bethany Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 13/05 | Maya Iyengar W35 Bethany Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Ayana Akli W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Sydney Jara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Reese Frank UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/06 | Georgia Kulevich UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Mary Boyce Deatherage UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Calla McGill UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Ellie Myers UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/05 | Ekaterina Ivanova UTR Pro Madison Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/05 | Maria Sholokhova UTR Pro Madison Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Parker Christensen UTR Pro Madison Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/05 | Sophie Parr UTR Pro Madison Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/05 | Ariane Lesterhuis UTR Pro Madison Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alana Smith vs Sydney Jara?
Our model gives 58% to Alana Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.